Uttar Pradesh Elections are just knocking on the door and all the Political lions are gearing themselves to fight the historic battle. The question which is going on every one’s mind is who would be the next chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi party the current ruling party in the state is again expecting a win but the opposition Bahujan Samaj Party can also be the next party to rule the state. In the past we have seen a coincidence that one time the Samajwadi party makes the government and the other time the BSP again takes the charge. The two central parties the BJP and the congress have also joined the race with lot of gusto. However the congress is struggling to get a position but the BJP is well set to go with a lot of confidence and ambition especially after winning 71 out of the total 80 Lok Sabha Seats of Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general elections.
Now we should take the probability with each party and its CM candidate separately so that we could at last come into some conclusion. Let us start with Hon’ble Akhilesh Yadav, the Samajwadi party Star who has done a lot to improve the image of the party and also the condition of the state which is having immense potential.
In Uttar Pradesh now days the common masses are much more inclined towards Akhilesh Yadav and he has become a public choice especially among the youths and the new generation. The general public is not very inclined towards the Samajwadi Party due to law and order issues in the state but their believe on Akhilesh is firm and they think he will try to uplift the status of the common man in U.P . After coming into power Akhilesh has tried his level best to shape the state and has given everything to make U.P as “Umeedon Ka Pradesh”. Some of the schemes started by Hon’ble Akhilesh Yadav are as Samajwadi Pension Yojana , Putrion Ki Shaddi hetu Anudan Yojna – Scheme for marriage for girls in U.P , U.P 100 world’s largest 24/7 Emergency service help line , Samajwadi Namak Yojana , Lucknow – Agra Express way ,Lohia Awaas Yojna , Bima Care Card under Samajwadi Kisan and Sarvhit Bima Yojana , Samajwadi Smart phone Yojana , Free laptop Distribution scheme , Dial 100 , U.P Mega Call centre , Metro Rail Yojna and other schemes to benefit the common man . He is a man who is thinking in the positive direction and is trying to full fill the dreams of the young generation. Samajwadi Party is having a face that has done lot of things in his 5 year tenure and he can fetch votes on his own to bring back the ruling party into power. As of now one more positive sign of Akhilesh Yadav coming back into power was the recent family feud in which the public is of the opinion that Akhilesh Yadav has started taking his own decision and has come out of the shadow of the SP chief which is now making him a leader of own decisions which can take U.P to the heights which was earlier missing as the general public has felt somewhere that he was batting under pressure which was not allowing him to play the shots he deserves. People would love to see him back giving credence to the argument that he is a right man in the wrong party where the likes of Shivpal Yadav, Amar Singh and Azam Khan hold sway. Infighting within the party has come in the open in the recent months which has although uplifted the image of Akhilesh Yadav as a independent leader but to some extent can also curtail the vote bank of the ruling party in the state . However with Hon’ble Akhilesh Yadav in the party the chances of Samajwadi party coming back into power is expected the most.
Now we should have a look on the BSP which is again to be known that the voters have U.P have alternately voted and BSP came into power. The basic reason why the public is in favour of the Mayawati government is due to the strong law and order situation in the state when Mayawati is into power. People feel safe and there is no chaos situation in the state during her tenure. Due to this BSP is a strong contender in the state and have the chances of forming the government in the state. But yes this time the chances can be considered low as after coming of BJP into power and the Modi led government which is actively involved in the development cards the chances are getting dimmer day by day and has queered the pitch . Moreover recently many of the senior part resources have left the party on account of differences between them and the BSP Supremo. Even many of the BSP Key MLA’s have left the party accusing party chief Mayawati of selling tickets and not awarding them on the basis of merit. Recently many strong leaders from the BSP have left Mayawati and have joined BJP. Although these all have weaken the strength of the party but then also BSP supremo has 21 percent vote Bank of the Dalit population which will came to the BSP only in any case . One more advantage of the BSP above the SP and the BJP is that during the tenure of BSP there has never been a law and order problem in the state nor any communal riots. With this the chances of BSP coming into power is expected but yes there are doubts that BSP will get complete majority and the party can form government on its own .
Now we should discuss about Congress party and its chances in the state. The congress has lost its form totally whether it is the Central or the State. They are not in an intention to form the government but their ultimate aim is that they would fulfill the shortfall of the BSP or the Samajwadi party in case there is a shortage of seats from their side to form the government. Congress has now become a dependent party and gone are those Gandhi days when the party used to be the one man show in any elections whether it is Lok Sabha elections or Rajya Sabha elections. The main agenda of the Congress in this election is to prevent BJP from forming the government and coming to power in the state. For this their ultimate goal is to win 50 – 60 seats something which the party has not been able to achieve since 1989.
After sweeping the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 BJP has a reason to expect a positive outcome in the state this time in 2017 elections .Even in the Centre the Modi led government is driving the ship quite well and their main focus is on development. The win of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 has made it clear that the public is more interested in development rather than caste and other basic necessities through which the other parties has tried to win the votes in the past. But yes in a frontier like Uttarpradesh it is difficult for BJP to form the government alone. But yes the chance of BJP in the state is high as compared to others. Though it would not be a complete majority in the state but yes the chances of BJP will much depend on the CM Candidate they would declare. The reason of their not declaring the CM candidate could be anything may be it could be due to some internal decision or maybe they are not having a suitable candidate yet. In U.P election the caste factor plays a major role in deciding the vote bank may be due to which they are not declaring the candidate yet as it could be that the other parties could draw some votes which they are expecting. At the last moment they will not have enough time to play the cards and may be BJP would be benefited to some extent by this. However the chances of BJP coming into power is also depending a lot on may be some important policy decision that the P.M would take in favour of the state which would change the vote Bank in favour of BJP in totality . Yes it depends as Modi is a leader who knows how to play the cards and for him also U.P is a challenge as this would help the centre to develop the state at a faster rate and their wouldn’t be any blockades which would hinder progress.
As on date it is not very clear that which party would rule the state in 2017. Whether it is SP, BSP or the BJP each one has its own chances of winning the elections. This time it would be a tight match between all and till the last moment each one would hold its nerve. In U.P the Muslims vote would be the decider as these votes would be the king maker or queen maker because every time their choice of the leader changes. To some extent the OBC would also be responsible but it depends on the situation.
So at last we cannot fully determine who would be the next leader for U.P but probably one can guess only. In the present situation if we will speak based on the above mentioned points SP and BJP would have a tough fight. India is a democratic country and ultimately the deciders would be the voters of Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh is having a high potential and it’s a high time it should get a reliable and suitable leader who could steer the state forward.